Aston Villa vs Newcastle United

Analysis and Prediction: Aston Villa vs. Newcastle

While the remaining fit Newcastle players have performed admirably, they have repeatedly struggled late in matches as their energy reserves run lower due to squad constraints.

Newcastle have a +4 goal differential in the second half of league matches this season, but when you zoom in to just the eight games since the start of December, their -6 differential is the second-worst in the English top flight, as is their -4.56 xG/xGA differential. Put plainly, the Magpies are falling apart late in games as they tire.

Fctvhd Newcastle Match

Meanwhile, Villa have the fourth-most points gained from losing positions in the Premier League this season, having snatched three wins and three draws from the 10 games in which they've fallen behind. In the same span of matches since the start of December in which Newcastle have faltered, Villa have a +3.07 xG differential and have been exceptional defensively. The hosts will win this match after the break.

With Aston Villa's opponents paying increased attention to Ollie Watkins and minimizing his impact, the club has been forced to find goals from other individuals within the squad. Watkins has scored just one goal in his last seven Premier League matches as his volume decreases.

Douglas Luiz has seen his opportunities in the attacking third increase, and he got a payoff against Burnley with the 89th-minute winner. Luiz had five goals in the first nine matches of the year but saw a nine-match scoreless streak snapped with that goal in late December.